Central Asia Metals PLC: Solid performer but facing headwinds

Central Asia Metals (LON:CAML) is an established, well-managed and profitable base metals miner operating in North Macedonia and Kazakhstan.

However, commodities market headwinds have had an impact on its share price direction. Going by the company’s own public statement in 2018: “The fall of the Central Asia Metals’ share price and the FTSE AIM All Share/Basic Resources index appears to be driven by an average of a 20% reduction in copper, zinc and lead prices (as well as other commodities), a strong US dollar and the trade wars between China and the USA.”

Put it all together, and its “affecting business investment, consumer confidence and resulting in risks of a global economic slowdown. In addition, the weak GBP and 2018 uncertainty over the Brexit outcome also contributed in temporarily reducing international investors’ appetite in GBP denominated assets and stocks.” 

Here are company’s key financials at a glance. 

Based on current reading of avialable data and market sentiment:

For: Copper prices are expected to recover strongly in 2019, 2020-21 as stocks decline; and similar rise expected for zinc in 2019-2020; pay-out policy of 30-50% of free cashflow; and its mines have 19 (Zinc and Lead) and 14 year (Copper) expected operational lives. Furthermore, company has low costs of production; and is a diversified miner (three metals, but only two mines). Market sentiment suggests switch to electric vehicles is likely to increase demand for copper, and continued demand for lead. 

Against: Political risk (trade wars and the countries of operations); adverse economic conditions (reducing demand for commodities); risk that commodity prices continue to fall (2018: copper down 17%; lead down 20%; zinc down 24%). Company's current offtake agreements end in 2022 for its three metals. 

Conclusion: While Central Asia Metals is facing headwinds, it remains a solid performer and could be deemed a 'buy' based on its medium-term prospects.